Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s reading on 31 July will be set by the day’s **highest temperature at Barajas Airport**, so the key question is whether the afternoon peak gets into the mid-30s Celsius or pushes towards the upper-30s. The broad July climate profile already points to a hot finish to the month: Madrid’s average July highs are around 33°C, and daily maxima commonly sit in the low-to-mid 30s before any heatwave uplift.[7][17]

The current 0% YES price looks detached from the weather backdrop. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook for Madrid shows 31 July at 92–96°F, roughly 33–36°C depending on location, while a live Spanish forecast published on the morning of 31 July called for a maximum of 38°C in the city.[1][4][6] Recent Madrid history shows that 38°C is not an outlier in late July, and the city’s all-time extremes are much higher, with recent records above 40°C at other Madrid stations.[11][15]

For traders, the main catalyst is the intraday temperature curve at Barajas: early cloud cover, wind shift, or convective heating can still move the final high by a couple of degrees, but the decisive window is usually mid-afternoon local time. The market settles off the Wunderground history page for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, so the last published high before the 12:00Z cut-off and any late-day spike after that point matter most for classification risk.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.