Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Manila in July shows daily highs typically ranging between 83°F and 94°F (28°C to 34°C), with an average high of 88°F (31°C) and consistent humidity. Long-term averages indicate daytime temperatures usually reach 31°C, rarely exceeding 34°C, while overnight lows hover around 24°C. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 26°C contradicts these established patterns, as even the wet season—spanning June to October—maintains average temperatures of 26°C to 31°C.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from PAGASA and Wunderground for July 1, particularly heat index forecasts that could reach 46°C, as reported by PAGASA. While tropical storms affect Manila on roughly 1.6 days in July, heavy rainfall in July and August may temporarily lower temperatures, though not below 26°C. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, so immediate attention to Wunderground’s hourly records for RPLL is critical. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather confirm daily highs between 83°F and 94°F, reinforcing that outcomes below 26°C are statistically improbable despite the market’s current pricing.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.