Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Metro Manila is currently experiencing its dry season, with recent readings showing a high of 35°C (94.8°F) on 3 July 2026, just days before this settlement window opens[2]. Historical data for early July in Manila typically sees afternoon highs clustering between 31°C and 35°C, making a record-breaking spike unlikely under normal atmospheric conditions[8]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome aligns with the fact that Manila’s all-time record of 38.8°C was set in late April 2024, not during the wetter, cloudier July period[1].

Traders should monitor the onset of the southwest monsoon, which usually intensifies by mid-July and brings increased cloud cover and rainfall that suppress peak temperatures. While the Philippines’ absolute national record stands at 42.2°C in Tuguegarao, Manila’s urban heat island effect rarely pushes temperatures beyond 36°C even in its hottest months[3][5]. The primary catalyst to watch is the PAGASA weather bulletin for any unexpected dry spells or high-pressure systems that could clear skies, though current forecasts suggest continued partly sunny conditions with moderate humidity[4]. No significant heatwave announcements have been issued for the region as of this morning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.