Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila on 30 June 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with the market currently implying a 0% chance that the heat reaches the highest bracket. Historical data frames this probability sharply: June in Manila typically delivers daytime highs around 32°C, rarely exceeding 35°C, while the wet season begins with frequent afternoon thunderstorms that suppress extreme heat [1][3]. The all-time record high at NAIA is 38.8°C, set in April 2024, and a recent heat index of 45°C was recorded in Metro Manila, but these extremes are outliers tied to the dry season’s peak in March and April, not the onset of the wet season in June [4][5][7].

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s live NAIA readings for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall intensity, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures toward or away from the 30°C threshold [5]. A recent PAGASA report noted that while heat indices can spike to dangerous levels, actual air temperatures in June rarely breach 35°C due to high humidity and storm activity [5]. With the wet season spanning June to October and July–August being the heaviest rainfall months, the likelihood of sustained extreme heat is low, making the 0% market probability consistent with seasonal patterns [4]. Watch for any unexpected clear-sky forecasts in the days leading to 30 June, which could temporarily elevate temperatures, though such events remain statistically improbable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.