Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s hottest reading on 6 August is usually a warm-summer question rather than an extreme-heat one, but the range of outcomes is still broad enough to matter for a temperature-band market. Long-run August data put Munich’s average daily high around 24–25°C, while the city’s August record high is 37–38°C, showing that a sharply hotter-than-normal day is possible even if it is not typical.[1][2][15]

The date itself has a modest historical tilt towards mid-20s Celsius: one Munich climate source lists a 6 August record high of 35.3°C and an average high of 25.4°C for that day, which makes the very lowest bands hard to justify absent a cool, cloudy setup.[1] Against that backdrop, a 0% implied YES price looks like a market that is either mispriced or waiting for a very specific threshold band to become relevant, because late-summer Munich can still produce large swings when continental heat builds in Central Europe.[1][11]

For traders, the main catalyst is the short-range forecast into the afternoon verification window at Munich Airport, not broad seasonal averages. The settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Munich Airport Station, so the crucial inputs are whether any heat advisory, thunderstorm line, or maritime air mass changes the daytime maximum before the 12:00 UTC cut-off; those are the conditions that can shift the day’s high by several degrees and move the likely resolution band.[3][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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