Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 will be recorded at the Munich Airport Station (EDDM), with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. Today, 15 July 2026, the city is experiencing 52 °F (approximately 11 °C), well below summer peaks, and the market currently implies a 0% chance of any outcome being YES, suggesting traders expect no temperature to fall within the defined resolution ranges or that the market structure is flawed[1].

Historically, Munich Airport has recorded highs near 35–38 °C on mid-July days during heatwaves, such as in 2019 and 2022, when continental Europe faced extreme temperatures. However, the current 0% probability is anomalous for a weather market with a settlement window still open until 12:00 UTC tomorrow, indicating either a mispricing of the resolution ranges or an error in the market’s binary logic, as even a mild summer day would typically exceed 20 °C[1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s live hourly updates for EDDM throughout the remainder of 15 July and the early hours of 16 July before the 12:00 UTC cutoff, as any sudden heat spike could invalidate the current pricing. No official weather forecasts have been released yet for this specific day, but the German Meteorological Service (DWD) typically publishes 7-day forecasts by mid-morning; a late-summer heat advisory from DWD could act as a catalyst for rapid price movement if it signals temperatures above 30 °C[1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.