Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current market sentiment assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome, yet frontrunner outcomes cluster tightly around 25°C and 26°C, with 26°C holding a 52% implied chance and 25°C at 49% [1]. Historical averages for Munich in July show daily highs rising from 72°F to 75°F (22°C to 24°C), rarely dipping below 61°F (16°C) or exceeding 87°F (31°C) [5]. This suggests the current 0% YES probability may reflect a mispricing if the market expects temperatures to exceed a specific threshold not aligned with typical climatic norms.

Traders should monitor real-time hourly forecasts and official meteorological updates, as today’s conditions at Munich Airport show sunny intervals with temperatures climbing to 74°F (23°C) by 3 pm [6]. A sudden heat spike or cloud cover shift could alter the peak temperature significantly before the noon resolution cutoff. Recent thin volume and eleven competing outcomes increase volatility, making the market sensitive to minor weather fluctuations [3]. No major weather alerts have been issued, but forecasters note rising pressure at 1040mb, which typically stabilises conditions but does not preclude afternoon warming [2]. Watch Wunderground’s live feed for the final high-temperature reading, as it directly determines resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.