Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific range suggests traders believe the outcome is either impossible within the defined bins or that the market lacks clarity on the bin structure. Historically, Munich’s July highs average between 72°F and 75°F (22°C–24°C), with overcast conditions occurring roughly 42% of the time [1]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs ranging from 69°F to 90°F (20°C–32°C), with an average high of 77°F (25°C) [2]. Today’s observed temperature at 13:00 BST was 23°C (74°F), under light cloud with 97% humidity [6], aligning closely with seasonal norms and offering no immediate catalyst for extreme deviation.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates for 9 July 2026, as the resolution depends solely on the peak temperature recorded at any time that day. Key dependencies include sudden convective activity, which could suppress temperatures, or prolonged clear skies with strong solar irradiance (averaging 6.3 kWh daily shortwave energy) [1], potentially pushing highs toward the 30°C+ range. While no recent news source explicitly forecasts an extreme heat event for Munich on this date, the wide forecast range (up to 32°C) [2] implies non-zero risk of a bin breach if the market’s bin definitions are narrow. Watch for official MeteoDe or BBC Weather alerts ahead of 9 July, as sudden changes in cloud cover or wind patterns (currently 4 mph east-northeast) [6] could shift the peak temperature significantly. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 9 July, so all data must be captured before that cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.