Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 13 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature range will be captured before resolution occurs.

New York's August heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from LaGuardia indicates August highs typically range between 78–88°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 2012 heat wave saw temperatures exceed 95°F in early August, whilst cooler Augusts have produced highs in the mid-70s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. August 2024 saw LaGuardia record an 87°F high on the 13th, providing a recent comparable for typical mid-summer conditions in New York.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting updates from the National Weather Service and longer-range climate outlooks released through summer 2026, which typically become more reliable 10–14 days before the target date. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in early August will influence whether tropical moisture or continental air masses dominate the Northeast. Any significant weather system tracking toward the region in early August could materially shift temperature expectations, as would anomalous jet stream positioning that either traps heat or allows cooler air to penetrate southward.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.