Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia’s highest temperature for 3 August will be the settling number here, and the market is priced as if a mid-80s reading is still the most plausible outcome. The current crowd split is heavily concentrated in the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bands, with the former on 35% and the latter on 33%, while 80–81°F sits on 19% and 86–87°F on 8%.[1] That clustering suggests traders are treating this as a fairly narrow call around a warm but not extreme afternoon, rather than pricing in a major break either way.[1]

For historical framing, New York’s early-August highs usually sit close to the low 80s, so a forecast around 82–85°F is consistent with a typical summer day rather than a standout heat event.[2][15] Recent local reporting also shows the city has been capable of much hotter spells this season, including LaGuardia’s record warm midnight reading during the July heat wave, which is a reminder that tropical overnight warmth does not guarantee an exceptional daytime maximum.[16][11] In practical terms, the market looks sensitive to small shifts in cloud cover, storm timing and boundary-layer mixing, because a one- or two-degree change is enough to move the settlement into a different bucket.[1][8]

The key catalysts are the latest National Weather Service guidance, any update to the thunderstorm or flood risk, and whether convective clouds arrive early enough to cap the afternoon high. One local forecast page points to a partly cloudy, warm pattern with temperatures around 30°C/86°F, while CBS New York highlighted a storm threat for the region on Monday, which could matter if showers develop before peak heating.[7][8] With the market settling on LaGuardia’s recorded daily maximum from Wunderground, traders will also watch for any late-day timing change in the first subsequent datapoint, since revisions within the settlement window are only considered until that point is published.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.