Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the hottest reading logged at LaGuardia Airport on 7 August, and the market settles on the temperature band containing the peak value from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than any headline day-high figure. That distinction matters because the resolution source is station-specific and intraday, so the number that counts is the highest observed reading at LGA during the local day, not a rounded summary from a forecast page or citywide average.[4][8]

For context, New York City has already seen a properly hot summer spell in 2026, including a 100°F reading on 2 July, showing that upper-90s outcomes are not outlandish when the synoptic pattern supports them.[5] But the latest published August 7 market snapshot was still concentrating around the low 90s, with 90–91°F the leading band and 88–89°F close behind, which is consistent with a warm but not extreme setup.[3] Against that backdrop, a 0% yes price for a specific threshold would imply the crowd is treating the eventual LGA maximum as very unlikely to land in that exact bin, rather than denying warmth altogether.[3]

The main catalysts are the actual observation sequence and any late-day convection that could suppress the high or, conversely, allow a brief spike before storms arrive. Weather Underground’s history page for the date and the National Weather Service climate products are the relevant places to watch once the day’s readings are posted, because revisions can matter until the next day’s first datapoint appears.[4][8] Forecast services had pointed to mostly sunny conditions with only a slight afternoon thunderstorm risk, which is the kind of setup that can keep the market centred on a narrow upper-80s to low-90s range unless cloud cover or a storm outperforms expectations.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.