Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, New York City faced a heat emergency as temperatures at LaGuardia Airport surged into the low-to-mid 90s Fahrenheit, with ensemble forecasts centreing near 93–95°F amid elevated dew points and light winds[1][9]. The day’s recorded maximum reached 93°F at 12:00 PM, confirming a scorching but not record-breaking peak for early July[3]. This event unfolded under clear skies with south winds around 11 mph, pushing heat index values as high as 99 and creating dangerous conditions for residents[8].

Historically, LaGuardia’s highest temperature ever recorded is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, meaning the 2026 peak remains well below the all-time extreme[4]. Comparable July 1 readings in recent decades typically range from 91°F to 96°F, aligning closely with the 2026 outcome and validating the market’s current frontrunner of 92–93°F at 90% probability[1][2]. The 0% YES probability for any outcome outside this range reflects strong consensus that temperatures will not breach the 96°F threshold or dip below 90°F.

Traders should monitor daily updates from Wunderground for LaGuardia’s official maximum, as this is the sole resolution source[5]. Any sudden shifts in forecast models or heat emergency declarations—such as the one issued on 30 June 2026—could signal volatility in temperature expectations[9]. With settlement ending 1 July 2027 at 12:00 UTC, real-time data from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather will be critical for verifying final outcomes[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.