Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

A severe heatwave engulfed the northeastern United States over the July 4, 2026 weekend, shattering decades-old temperature records across a 500-mile corridor from Washington, D.C. to coastal New Jersey. LaGuardia Airport recorded an unprecedented 104°F on July 3, breaking the 1966 record of 101°F by three degrees, while Central Park tied its historic high at 100°F [2]. This extreme event established a new baseline for July maxima in the region, with overnight lows remaining dangerously high between 65°F and 76°F throughout the month [1].

The current 0% probability for higher temperatures on July 10 reflects the statistical rarity of exceeding the July 3 peak of 104°F, which already surpassed the station’s all-time July high of 101°F set in 1966 [2][3]. Historical data shows LaGuardia’s highest recorded temperatures occurred in August and September, with peaks of 103°F in 1948 and 102°F in 2006, suggesting July 10 is unlikely to breach the early-month record [3]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s real-time timeseries for KLGA, as any deviation from the current 73–91°F forecast range could signal an unexpected heat spike [1][9].

No immediate catalysts suggest a temperature surge, given the heatwave’s dissipation after July 4 and the absence of announced atmospheric anomalies for mid-July [2]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on July 10, leaving minimal time for late-day record-breaking conditions. With the July 3 record standing as the new benchmark, the market correctly prices the near-zero chance of a higher reading on this specific date.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.