Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently experiencing a severe heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport hitting 102°F on Thursday, 2 July 2026, breaking the daily high record. This extreme event has pushed midnight temperatures to 94°F, the highest ever recorded at the station, signalling that July 2026 is already running significantly hotter than historical averages. The crowd-implied 0% probability for any specific outcome likely reflects a lack of consensus on which range will capture the peak, rather than a belief that temperatures will remain cool, given the active heat dome over the Northeast.

Historical data from July shows LaGuardia’s average high sits around 84°F, but record-breaking years like 1966 saw peaks of 107°F at the same airport. With the current forecast for mid-July ranging between 73°F and 91°F, the market’s frontrunner of 84–85°F at 55% probability aligns with typical conditions, yet the recent 102°F spike suggests the true peak could exceed this range. Traders should watch for updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground’s daily logs, as the settlement depends on the single highest reading recorded before the 12:00 UTC deadline on 12 July 2026. Any extension of the heatwave or new record announcements could rapidly shift probabilities away from the current 84–85°F consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.