Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City faces its mid-July heat peak today, with the LaGuardia Airport Station set to record the day’s maximum temperature for a market settling at noon tomorrow. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to the event resolving as a specific outlier range, yet the frontrunner outcome sits firmly at 98–99°F with a 41% implied chance, while 96–97°F holds 20% [1]. This distribution mirrors historical mid-July patterns at KLGA, where temperatures frequently breach 95°F but rarely exceed 100°F, suggesting the zero-probability tag on extreme outliers reflects a rational assessment of regional climatic limits rather than market ignorance [2].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the LaGuardia station, as the settlement source relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for all times on 15 July 2026 [1]. Any sudden shift in the 98–99°F probability above 50% would signal an incoming heatwave, while a drop below 30% might indicate unexpected cloud cover or rain. The market’s dependency on a single data point from Wunderground means volatility will spike if the station reports anomalies or if weather models diverge sharply from observed conditions, making live tracking essential for positioning before the 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.