Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine the settlement outcome. New York City's summer heat patterns show mid-July typically ranges between 78°F and 88°F, with occasional spikes above 90°F during heat waves. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates that temperatures exceeding 95°F on this date are rare but not unprecedented; the city experienced a 96°F reading on 19 July 2010 during a significant heat event.

July 2026 falls within the Atlantic hurricane season, which can introduce moisture and atmospheric instability affecting temperature trajectories. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature thresholds to be defined or reflecting uncertainty about which range the market will ultimately track. Seasonal climate patterns and any developing tropical systems in early July will provide early signals; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's extended forecasts, typically issued 8–14 days ahead, will offer the most actionable guidance as the settlement window approaches. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—a densely developed airport surrounded by concrete and infrastructure—consistently push recorded temperatures 2–4°F higher than surrounding areas, a material factor when assessing boundary conditions between temperature bands.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.