Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak daily heat on 20 July 2026, with the highest temperature falling squarely in the 82–83°F range. The market currently assigns a 100% probability to this outcome, rendering the 0% YES probability for any alternative range effectively a non-event. This certainty reflects the convergence of historical July patterns and real-time observational data now locked in, as the settlement window has already closed.

Historical records from the National Weather Service show LaGuardia’s July highs typically cluster between 78°F and 86°F, with 82–83°F representing a median summer peak rather than an outlier [2]. In comparable years, such as 2023 and 2024, the station recorded 83°F and 82°F respectively on mid-July dates, reinforcing that the current market consensus aligns with established climatic norms rather than speculative forecasting.

With the resolution source confirmed as Wunderground’s official daily record for KLGA and the settlement deadline passed, no further catalysts remain for traders to monitor. The outcome is already determined by observed weather, not future announcements. Any lingering 0% probabilities for other ranges reflect market inefficiency that has since been corrected by the availability of final data, leaving no actionable dependencies for new positions.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.