Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine the settlement range for this market. New York City's summer weather in late July typically sits in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available or expect conditions well below historical norms for that date.

Historical July records at LaGuardia show temperatures frequently exceed 85°F during the third week of summer, with occasional peaks near 90°F during typical heat events. The National Weather Service's 30-year climate normals place the average high for 21 July at approximately 84°F, providing a baseline against which extreme outcomes should be measured. Anomalously cool conditions—those producing highs in the 70s—occur in roughly 15–20% of years, usually when Atlantic weather systems bring moisture and cloud cover inland.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic hurricane season forecast and any developing tropical systems that might influence mid-Atlantic weather patterns in late July 2026. The North Atlantic Oscillation phase and sea surface temperature anomalies in June will signal whether ridge-building high pressure—typical of summer heat—is likely to dominate the region. Current seasonal outlooks from NOAA will become more precise by May 2026, offering clearer guidance on whether July will favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures across the Northeast.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.