Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's weather on 28 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature reading across all hours that day. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range this market is tracking—likely reflecting either an unusually cool forecast or uncertainty about the specific threshold being tested.

July temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster in the high 80s Fahrenheit, with typical highs around 84–86°F. The station's all-time July record sits at 104°F, set in 1966. Over the past decade, peak July temperatures at the airport have ranged from 79°F to 95°F, with extreme heat days (above 95°F) occurring roughly once every two to three years during the month. This historical spread provides context for evaluating whether the market's zero probability reflects a genuinely unlikely outcome or a mismatch between the range being tested and seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast as July 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of heat domes or Atlantic weather patterns that could drive temperatures into the 90s. Humidity levels and overnight lows will also influence daytime peaks. The settlement source, Weather Underground's historical data for KLGA, is straightforward and publicly verifiable, eliminating ambiguity around the measurement methodology once the date passes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.