Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently enduring an intense heat dome that has pushed LaGuardia Airport to record-breaking nighttime highs, with temperatures hitting 94°F at midnight on July 3, the warmest midnight ever recorded at the station[1]. This extreme event sits within a broader July 2026 forecast where daily highs are expected to range between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows staying uncomfortably warm between 68°F and 83°F[2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature falling into a specific range appears disconnected from this reality, as historical precedents show LaGuardia has reached 107°F on July 3, 1966, and recently hit 104°F alongside Newark on July 4, 2026[5][6].

Traders must monitor live National Weather Service forecast revisions and real-time Wunderground updates for LaGuardia, as thin market volume and tight brackets make this price highly sensitive to minor data shifts[8]. The immediate catalyst is the continuation of the heat wave sweeping the Northeast, which has already tied Central Park to a 100°F record on July 2, the hottest day in nearly 14 years[7]. With the settlement window ending on July 4, 2026, at 12:00 UTC, the key dependency is whether the heat dome sustains or breaks before the official daily high is logged, a factor that could rapidly alter the implied probability from its current zero baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.