Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City is currently engulfed in an intense heatwave, with LaGuardia Airport reaching 102°F on Thursday, shattering the daily high record and leaving the station at 94°F by midnight[1]. This extreme thermal event persists into early July 2026, establishing a backdrop where temperatures are significantly elevated above the seasonal norm for the region[3]. The market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature falling in a specific range suggests traders believe the heat will either peak higher or dissipate before July 9, yet the immediate data indicates a sustained period of record-breaking warmth that defies typical cooling patterns[4].

Historical precedents frame this probability with caution, as LaGuardia’s highest recorded temperature remains 107°F on July 3, 1966, a record that stood for decades until recent surges[7]. The station has already hit 104°F on July 2, 2026, marking the second-highest temperature in its history and confirming that 2026 is a year of exceptional thermal extremes[9]. Given that July 9, 1986, saw a temperature of 106°F in the city, the current 0% probability appears overly dismissive of the potential for another near-record day, especially when the heatwave has lingered into the night with unprecedented midnight temperatures[5].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service climatological forecasts, which predict daily highs ranging from 73°F to 91°F for July 2026, though recent data already exceeds these upper bounds significantly[4]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the heatwave, with no immediate signs of a cold front or precipitation to break the pattern, as confirmed by the persistent record-setting conditions reported by FOX Weather[1]. Any announcement regarding a shift in atmospheric pressure or the arrival of a marine layer could alter the trajectory, but current dependencies suggest the heat will remain entrenched, making the 0% probability a risky bet against the established trend of 2026’s thermal dominance[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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