Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, LaGuardia Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 71°F, falling well below the seasonal average of 84.2°F and the historical record of 101°F[8]. This outcome aligns with the market’s current 0% probability for any range above 73°F, as the day was dominated by a sharp cooling trend following an earlier heatwave[3]. Historical data from recent June days shows that while NYC typically experiences highs between 77°F and 92°F, extreme deviations like this 13°F deficit are rare but not unprecedented in post-heatwave transitions[6].

Traders should monitor upcoming weather bulletins from the National Weather Service, particularly any forecasts for late June that could signal a rebound in temperatures[4]. The immediate catalyst is the absence of a sustained heatwave; the previous week’s dangerous conditions, which saw heat indices feel even hotter due to humidity, have dissipated[3]. With cooling centres still open and officials urging residents to stay indoors, the atmospheric pressure system appears to have shifted, reducing the likelihood of a sudden spike. A key dependency is whether the next 48 hours bring clear skies and strong sunshine, which could reverse the cooling trend and push temperatures back toward the 82–83°F range seen on 24 June[2].

The market’s current form reflects a decisive break from the prior heatwave pattern, with no immediate signs of a return to dangerous levels. Recent results show that while 82–83°F was the frontrunner on 24 June, the 26th’s outcome was a stark contrast, underscoring the volatility of late-June weather in NYC[1]. Traders must watch for any announcements regarding atmospheric shifts or unexpected solar intensity, as these could alter the probability landscape before the settlement window closes on 26 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.