Highest temperature in Paris on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise methodological baseline for what constitutes the day's peak temperature reading.

Paris experiences considerable seasonal variation in August, with historical data showing daily highs typically ranging between 24–27°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The summer of 2025 saw several European heat events, including temperatures exceeding 35°C across parts of France in late July and early August. August 2003 remains the benchmark for extreme heat in the region, when Paris recorded 40.3°C during an exceptional heatwave. More recent Augusts have been variable; 2023 saw moderate temperatures whilst 2024 trended warmer than the 30-year average. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as unlikely rather than dismissing the market entirely.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts from mid-August 2026 onwards, particularly Atlantic pressure systems and any developing high-pressure zones over continental Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation phase and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will influence whether warm air masses reach the Paris region. Real-time meteorological updates from Météo-France and European weather services will become actionable only in the final week before settlement, making early positioning dependent on seasonal climatology rather than specific forecasts.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.