Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is likely to finish with a **modest August high rather than an extreme spike**, which helps explain why the market is clustered around the low-30s despite the 0% crowd price on “YES”. Paris long-run August normals sit around the mid-20s Celsius, with one monthly guide putting daytime highs at about 23°C and another at roughly 25°C, so a 31°C or 32°C reading would already be meaningfully above average. [12][6] Recent summer extremes matter, though: France has already been hit by a severe 2026 heat spell, with media reports saying Paris reached 40.9°C in June and France experienced its hottest day since records began in that same period. [9][13]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether the current late-summer pattern supports another heat surge or settles back to more typical conditions. Le Monde reported on 25 July that France was due to face its fourth heatwave of the year starting the following week, while the New York Times also noted a fourth European heat wave in late July, which keeps the tail risk of a hotter-than-normal afternoon alive even if the base case is milder. [18][16] The market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station on 4 August, so intraday timing, cloud cover, and any late-day convective showers are more relevant than the morning reading; the current crowd view already implies most confidence in 31°C to 32°C, with 31°C leading at 35% and 32°C close behind at 34%. [1][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.