Highest temperature in Paris on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s temperature on 6 August will be set by the day’s **highest reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport**, not by the capital’s city-centre forecast, so intraday convective spikes matter more than the simple daily average. Latest Paris guidance points to a warm but not extreme start to August, with highs around 25–27°C in nearby forecasts for 6 August and 25°C in one detailed Paris outlook, which is consistent with a summer baseline rather than a heatwave setup.[1][9][17]

That is why the current **0% YES** implies the market is pricing in either a very low ceiling or a resolution range above the likely outcome. Historical August climatology for Paris usually sits in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with one long-range guide calling August highs “comfortable” at roughly 23–25°C and another daily forecast showing 25°C for 6 August; those levels are far below the June extreme that briefly pushed Paris to 40.9°C during France’s recent record-breaking heat.[5][7][16] In other words, this contract only moves if the local station gets a much hotter-than-forecast afternoon.

Traders should watch whether Météo-France and regional outlets keep the early-August pattern benign or upgrade Paris into a heat alert, because the final reading depends on the warmest part of the day before the 12:00Z settlement cut-off. France has already seen repeated heatwaves in 2026, including a June event that produced exceptional national highs and forced operational disruptions, so any renewed ridge, hotter-than-expected overnight minima, or clear-sky subsidence over Île-de-France would be the main catalysts for a repricing.[2][12][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.