Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris faces a scorching July 12 in 2026, with current conditions showing 93°F (33.9°C) and passing clouds as evening approaches, yet the market assigns zero probability to any temperature spike exceeding historical norms for this specific date [2]. Historically, Paris’s absolute record stands at 42.6°C on 25 July 2019, while the national French record of 45.9°C occurred in southern Gallargues-le-Montueux, not the capital [1][3]. July 12 has never previously registered extreme heat in Paris comparable to mid-late July peaks, making the 0% crowd-implied probability consistent with the city’s oceanic climate pattern where days above 32°C are rare and typically brief [3].

Traders should monitor Meteo France’s daily heatwave alerts and real-time Wunderground updates for Paris-Le Bourget, the official settlement station, as early July heatwaves in 2026 have already triggered red alerts across 54 departments [9]. A sudden shift in wind direction from the south or a breakdown in the passing cloud cover could rapidly elevate temperatures, but no such catalyst has materialised yet in the final hours before settlement [2]. With the window closing at 12:00 UTC on 12 July 2026, any late-day surge would need to exceed 35°C to challenge the market’s current stance, a threshold not breached on this date in recent almanac records [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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