Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris faces a mid-July heat check on 13 July 2026, with the market pricing a near-impossible chance that the day’s peak at Paris-Le Bourget exceeds the highest historical range for that date. Current July averages in the city sit between 23°C and 25°C, rarely climbing above 31°C, while the all-time French record of 42.4°C was set in Paris on 25 July 2019, not on the 13th [1][3]. The 1% YES probability aligns with the absence of any documented 13 July extreme in recent decades; even during the brutal 2019 and 2022 heatwaves, Paris-Le Bourget did not breach 40°C on that specific date, making a record-breaking spike statistically marginal.

Traders should monitor Meteo France’s red heat alerts and daily forecasts issued from 10 July onward, as a sustained southern European heat dome could push temperatures toward 35–37°C, though still below the threshold for YES settlement [9]. A key dependency is the 12-hour settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC; if a heat spike occurs after noon, it will not count. Watch for Wunderground’s real-time updates for Paris-Le Bourget (LFPB) on 13 July, and note that any cloud cover or Atlantic front arriving before midday would suppress peaks. No recent news indicates an imminent extreme event, reinforcing the low implied probability [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.