Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s temperature market for 10 August is being priced against a coastal city that usually struggles to get much above the upper 60s or low 70s in August, even before marine layer effects are considered. Weather Underground’s San Francisco climate page puts the airport station’s normal August maximum at about 72°F, while the historical August record high is far above anything the market is likely to need; that makes this a question of whether the day reaches a routine warm spell or gets capped by onshore flow.[15][11]

The current 0% YES implies traders see no realistic path to a very high reading, which is consistent with nearby market and forecast signals clustering in the 68-73°F range rather than anything materially hotter.[1][12][13][17][18] For comparison, the National Weather Service and other forecast sources have been pointing to low clouds early and a mostly sunny or partly cloudy break later, a pattern that often limits the afternoon peak at San Francisco International Airport, especially when the marine layer lingers into late morning.[2][12][13] The key historical frame is that this market settles off the *highest observed* temperature in the Daily Observations table, so even a brief lunchtime or mid-afternoon spike matters more than the headline daily high.[17]

Traders should watch the Weather Underground observation table through the day, because the settlement rule allows revisions until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[1] That means the important catalysts are the timing of the warmest airport observation, any late-day update to the station record, and whether coastal clouds clear enough for a short-lived top-end reading around the low 70s rather than the upper 60s.[1][2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.