Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market bets on whether San Francisco’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 at the International Airport reaches a specific threshold, with the crowd currently assigning only a 6% chance to the YES outcome. This low probability reflects the city’s typical maritime climate, where July highs usually hover between 67°F and 79°F, rarely exceeding 80°F at the airport [1][3]. Historical data shows the airport’s record high for any date is 103°F (set in September 1971), but July 13 has never approached such extremes; the closest Bay Area heat on that date was 116°F in Healdsburg in 1972, far inland from the coast [7].

Recent conditions reinforce the bearish stance: SFO Airport recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, with an average maximum of just 67.6°F through 15 July [4]. The current forecast for 13 July projects highs of 67–79°F, aligning with the market’s 50% probability for the 78–79°F range and 49% for 73°F or below [2]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report issued by SFO, which confirms normal maximums of 73°F and record highs of 88°F (1983) [8]. No immediate heatwave alerts have been issued for the Bay Area, and the absence of strong offshore flow or marine layer breakdown suggests temperatures will remain within the typical range, keeping the YES outcome unlikely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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