Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s July heat is governed by its marine climate, where the Pacific typically caps daytime highs despite the region’s summer dry season. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome below the implied range, yet historical data shows July 14 highs at KSFO rarely exceed 82°F, with a median near 77°F. Over the past decade, only three Julys saw temperatures breach 80°F on the 14th, and the 2023 heat dome pushed it to 81°F before the marine layer reasserted control by afternoon [1].

Traders should monitor the Pacific High’s position and the strength of the coastal low, as a weak marine layer could allow inland heat to spill into the Bay Area. The primary catalyst is the 5–7 day forecast from the National Weather Service, which will clarify whether a ridge is building over Northern California. A recent Wunderground history check confirms KSFO’s July 14 average is 76.8°F, with a standard deviation of just 3.2°F, making extreme outliers statistically unlikely unless a fire weather event or atmospheric river disrupts the norm [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.