Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at San Francisco International Airport on 30 June 2026, which historically rarely dips below 61°F or exceeds 80°F, with June highs typically climbing from 68°F to 71°F[3]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the 70–71°F range aligns with this year’s unusually cool start: SFO Airport recorded its coldest first half of summer since 1965, averaging just 67.6°F through 15 July[6]. Today’s observed high is 66°F at 2 PM, with sunny intervals and a fresh westerly breeze at 18 mph[2], reinforcing that the 70–71°F bracket remains statistically improbable under current conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report for 30 June, which will officially verify the maximum temperature and trigger market resolution[1]. Key dependencies include the timing of the 11:59 PM local deadline and the subsequent data release, which determines expiration on the first 7:00 or 8:00 AM ET following verification[1]. While no immediate weather anomalies are forecast, any sudden shift in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the high; however, the persistent cool trend and low humidity (67%) suggest temperatures will likely stay near or below 67°F, making the 70–71°F outcome highly unlikely without a significant meteorological catalyst[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.