Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport is expected to record a high near 64–65°F on 16 July 2026, aligning with the crowd-implied certainty that temperatures will stay well below any extreme heat threshold. Historical July data for the region shows average daytime highs around 26°C (79°F), but local microclimates and recent forecasts point to cooler, more moderate conditions for this specific date, with nights dipping to 13°C (55°F) [2]. The 0% probability assigned to higher temperature ranges reflects this consensus, as no significant heatwave has been forecasted for the Pacific Northwest during mid-July 2026.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground’s daily history page for KSEA, which serves as the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns such as unexpected marine layer breaks or inland heat advection [1]. While Seattle typically experiences only two rainy days in July with minimal precipitation (8.7 mm total), an unforecasted cool front could further suppress temperatures, reinforcing the current market stance. No major weather announcements or model revisions have emerged as of early July 2026 to challenge the 64–65°F frontrunner, suggesting the line is stable unless a rapid atmospheric change occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.