Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer heat in mid-August typically peaks in the 28–32°C range, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. The 14th falls within the latter half of August, when the Korean peninsula experiences its most intense thermal conditions before the autumn transition begins. Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, sits on reclaimed land west of Seoul proper and occasionally records slightly lower maxima than central Seoul due to maritime influence, though this differential rarely exceeds 1–2°C.

Historical records from Incheon show that temperatures exceeding 35°C on 14 August occur roughly once every five to seven years, typically during years when the North Pacific high-pressure system dominates the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a notably cool August or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable August 14th observations from the past decade cluster between 29–33°C, with only three instances of readings above 34°C across that period.

Traders should monitor the East Asian weather pattern forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly the positioning of the Tibetan high and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific that might redirect moisture northward. The Korea Meteorological Administration's extended outlook, typically issued 10 days before the settlement date, will provide the clearest signal of whether high-altitude heat domes or cooler maritime air masses will dominate on the 14th. Any tropical system tracking toward the Korean peninsula in the preceding week would substantially shift temperature expectations downward.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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