Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s heat is expected to carry into the day, with local forecasts and Korean media pointing to a sharp peak rather than a cool-down. SBS English reported that daytime temperatures in Seoul could reach 38°C and that a serious heat wave warning begins at 11:00 local time, while Asiae put Incheon’s high at 37°C for 4 August, which would be consistent with a very warm reading at Incheon International Airport Station rather than an outlier below seasonal norms.[1][3]

For context, early August is already one of the hottest periods of the year in Seoul, with WeatherSpark describing 4 August as the city’s hottest day on average and typical highs around 85°F, or about 29°C.[14] That matters because a 0% YES price implies the market is currently pricing no realistic chance of landing in the relevant temperature band, yet the day’s setup looks much closer to the upper end of summer climatology than to a mild spell. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Seoul also shows daily highs frequently in the mid-to-high 80s Fahrenheit, reinforcing the idea that extreme heat is not a low-probability scenario in the current pattern.[2]

The main catalysts to watch are the official noon-to-afternoon evolution of the heatwave, cloud cover, and any scattered showers that could limit the airport station’s maximum. Asiae said some western areas may see afternoon showers, but not enough to relieve the heat, and SBS noted similar sporadic rain later in the day, so traders should focus on whether convective cloud breaks or local rain clip the peak at Incheon before the settlement window closes.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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