Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak temperature at Incheon Airport on 5 August is being judged against an unusually hot run, but the market’s resolution depends on the airport station, not central Seoul. Short-range guidance published by the market itself puts the main cluster in the **34–35°C** band, with **34°C** the front-runner and **35°C** close behind, while the wider forecast material for the capital points to daytime highs around **38°C** in Seoul and Incheon. [3][4][5]

The recent backdrop supports a high-end outcome. Seoul reached **36.3°C** on 3 August, its hottest day of the year so far, while national headlines reported South Korea’s highest-ever recorded temperature of **42.5°C** in Yangsan during the current heatwave. [12][15] August in Seoul is normally hot, but not usually at the extreme end of the scale, so the market’s 0% “YES” pricing would only make sense if traders are treating the relevant bracket as a very specific threshold rather than a broad hot-weather event. [1][8][20]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates and any revisions to the airport’s hourly observations before the settlement cut-off, because the market rules say later corrections only count until the first datapoint for the following date is published. [7][3] The main dependency is whether Incheon stays in the core of the heat dome or gets relief from showers and maritime influence, as local reporting has already described showers around Incheon even while the broader Seoul area remains under serious heat warnings. [6][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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