Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether Incheon International Airport will record a temperature exceeding the current crowd-implied threshold on 10 July 2026, a date that historically sits within Seoul’s peak monsoon window. Current sentiment assigns zero probability to a “YES” outcome, suggesting traders believe extreme heat is unlikely given the seasonal rainfall patterns that typically suppress maximum temperatures during the first half of July.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: the highest temperature ever recorded in Seoul between 1 and 10 July is 37.8°C, observed on 8 July 2024, yet this remains an outlier against the long-term average of 28°C for daytime maximums in early July [1][3]. While AccuWeather forecasts daily highs up to 35°C (95°F) for July 2026, the monsoon season—active from late June to mid-July—brings concentrated, heavy rainfall that usually limits sustained heat spikes [2][5]. Traders should watch for sudden shifts in the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, particularly any announcements of rain clearing before midday, which could allow temperatures to surge unexpectedly [9]. A clear sky forecast for 10 July, coupled with low humidity, would be the primary catalyst for a record-breaking day, though such conditions remain statistically rare in this period.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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