Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is facing a critical heat event as the city approaches its hottest early July in 117 years, with temperatures recently hitting 37.8°C and 37.7°C in previous record-breaking spells [1][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the market suggests traders believe the temperature will fall below the lowest resolution threshold, yet historical data indicates July highs in Seoul rarely drop below 29°C (84°F) and typically average 31°C (88°F) [3][4]. Recent climate trends show South Korea recorded its second-hottest July since 1973, with average temperatures reaching 27.1°C, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme heat rather than a cool anomaly [6].

Traders must monitor the daily Wunderground report for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, which serves as the definitive resolution source for this market [1]. The primary catalyst is the ongoing heatwave pattern driven by high-pressure systems that have already pushed regional temperatures to 41.0°C in Hongcheon, the highest ever recorded in Korean history [2]. With forecasts for July 2026 showing daily highs ranging from 82°F to 99°F (28°C to 37°C), the probability of a sub-threshold temperature remains statistically negligible unless a sudden monsoon shift occurs [4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, requiring immediate attention to the morning temperature readings before the daily peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.