Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is set to record its peak temperature for 13 July 2026 at the Incheon International Airport station, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the implied threshold at zero probability. Historical data shows July highs in Seoul typically range between 29°C and 35°C, rarely exceeding 31°C before the monsoon peak in August [5][10]. Recent extremes, including a 37.8°C reading in early July 2023—the hottest for that period in 117 years—demonstrate that record-breaking heat is possible, though such spikes are outliers rather than norms [2][6].

The current 0% YES probability suggests the market expects temperatures to stay within a lower band, likely anchored around the 32°C frontrunner seen on Polymarket for this date [1]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Incheon station, as the settlement relies exclusively on its highest recorded figure for the day [1]. Any sudden shift in the monsoon front or an unexpected heat dome could alter the trajectory, but recent patterns show July averages stabilising near 27.1°C overall, with highs seldom breaching 33°C unless a severe heatwave occurs [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.