Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-July sits firmly within the East Asian summer monsoon season, when the Korean peninsula experiences its most intense heat and humidity. Historical records from Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—show July typically ranks among the year's hottest months, with daily highs regularly exceeding 28°C and occasionally pushing toward 33–35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall below the lowest range offered, though this conflicts with typical July conditions in the region.

Comparable July data from recent years provides the essential benchmark. In July 2023, Seoul recorded multiple days above 32°C, whilst July 2022 saw sustained temperatures in the 29–31°C range throughout the month. The Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in early June, will be the primary catalyst for adjusting expectations as the settlement date approaches. Additionally, any significant atmospheric patterns—such as the timing and intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon or tropical cyclone activity—can shift temperatures materially. Traders should monitor official KMA outlooks and Wunderground's historical data series for Incheon to calibrate their positions against the specific temperature bands available in this market.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.