Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing the peak of its monsoon season, with July 2026 forecast to deliver daily highs between 21°C and 28°C, heavily influenced by intense humidity and frequent, short-lived rain showers. The market’s current 0% probability for any specific outcome above the baseline appears to stem from a misunderstanding of the location’s resolution source, which is Incheon International Airport rather than the city centre, creating a significant geographic discrepancy for traders. Historical data confirms that Incheon, situated on the coast, typically records slightly lower temperatures than inland Seoul due to maritime cooling, with average July highs often hovering near 27°C to 28°C, making the 28°C bracket the most statistically probable outcome despite the current zero pricing[1][2].

Traders must monitor the immediate release of the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecast, which currently indicates a daily high of 25°C for today, a figure that could shift rapidly if the monsoon rains clear and expose the region to intense midday sun[9]. The primary catalyst is the timing of the Jangma rain system; if the heavy showers dissipate before noon, temperatures could spike toward the 30°C threshold seen in recent days, as evidenced by the July 1 market where the 30°C bracket surged to nearly 70% probability just hours before resolution[7]. Additionally, the upcoming Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July suggests a localised cooling trend may be imminent, but for July 2, the critical dependency remains the precise window of rain clearance, which dictates whether the coast reaches the 28°C frontrunner or stays cooler[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.