Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heatwave window, with the Incheon International Airport station—the official resolution source—historically recording daily highs that frequently exceed 30°C in mid-July. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific temperature range suggests traders are either misreading the market’s binary nature or assuming an extreme outlier is impossible, yet recent data contradicts this caution. July 2025 was the second-hottest July on record for South Korea, with a nationwide average of 27.1°C, while early July 2024 saw Seoul hit 37.1°C, the highest temperature ever recorded in the capital during the first ten days of the month [1][2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and real-time wunderground readings for the Incheon station, as these directly dictate settlement. A sudden shift in monsoon rainfall patterns could suppress temperatures, but the 43% daily precipitation chance in July often fails to prevent extreme highs when humidity reaches 80% [3]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, any announcement of a prolonged heat dome over the Seoul Capital Area before 7 PM UTC today would be the primary catalyst for a rapid probability shift, given the region’s documented trend toward record-breaking early-summer temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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