Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the market betting on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport. Despite the crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome, the frontrunner is actually 27°C at 86%, followed by 28°C at 10%, indicating strong consensus around this range rather than uncertainty [1].

Historical July data for Incheon typically sees highs between 26°C and 30°C, with 27°C being a frequent median in recent years. The current pricing aligns with this pattern, suggesting traders view extreme heatwaves above 32°C or cool anomalies below 24°C as unlikely. The 0% probability likely refers to a specific, perhaps extreme, range not favoured by the market, while the 86% on 27°C reflects the most probable outcome based on seasonal norms [1].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time hourly data for Incheon, as sudden monsoon shifts or urban heat effects could alter the peak. No major weather disruptions are currently forecasted for the region, but a sudden influx of Pacific moisture could lower temperatures. The settlement hinges on the single highest reading recorded by 12:00 UTC, so any afternoon spike will be decisive [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.