Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded throughout that day determines the settlement range. July sits firmly within Seoul's summer monsoon season, when heat and humidity typically peak before the onset of autumn patterns in late August.

Historical data from Incheon shows July temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs averaging 29–31°C during the final week of the month. The station has recorded peaks above 35°C in previous late-July periods, though such extremes depend heavily on whether high-pressure systems dominate or monsoon troughs bring cooler, wetter conditions. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest range suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-typical day or uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve. Comparable years and seasonal patterns indicate this assessment warrants scrutiny, particularly if forecasts point toward a heat dome rather than typical monsoon activity.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models from mid-July onwards, as these typically gain accuracy within two weeks of the target date. The Korea Meteorological Administration issues extended forecasts that often precede international models in detecting regional heat events. Any announcements regarding unusual atmospheric patterns—such as a strengthened Tibetan high-pressure system or delayed monsoon onset—could shift expectations materially. Real-time conditions on 27–28 July will be the decisive factor, making this market sensitive to weather developments that emerge in the final 48 hours before settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.