Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently enduring its most intense nighttime heat wave for July, with temperatures never dipping below 29.3°C between Wednesday night and Thursday morning, setting a new record for tropical nights in the month since modern observations began over a century ago[1]. This extreme baseline suggests that any single-day peak on 3 July 2026 will likely remain well within the upper historical range, yet the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the highest temperature range implies traders believe the day will not breach the specific threshold in question, despite the city experiencing 22 tropical nights this month[1].

Historical data shows that July highs in Seoul typically increase from 81°F to 85°F, rarely falling below 74°F or exceeding 91°F, while the city recently recorded 37.7°C, the highest early July temperature in 117 years of records[2][7]. The fact that the market sits at 0% probability despite such record-breaking heat indicates the resolution threshold may be set significantly above 37.7°C, perhaps near the all-time Korean record of 41.0°C observed in Hongcheon, which is an outlier for the capital itself[3]. Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon Intl Airport Station specifically, as the market resolves on data from that location rather than Seoul city centre, and watch for any sudden shifts in the monsoon front or cloud cover that could suppress peaks below the threshold[3]. Recent news confirms the region is under a persistent heat dome, but the specific station in Incheon may record slightly lower peaks than the city centre, creating a critical dependency for the market outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.