Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing extreme heat as early July temperatures surge, with the city recording a historic peak of 37.8°C on 8 July, the highest ever observed during the 1–10 July window since records began[1]. This unprecedented figure directly challenges the market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature range below this threshold, suggesting traders are misreading the historical baseline. While typical July highs in Seoul average around 30°C (86°F) with humidity pushing felt temperatures over 34°C (93°F), the monsoon season often brings heavy rain that can temporarily suppress peaks, though this year’s dry spell has allowed temperatures to climb unchecked[3]. The 37.8°C record stands as a critical comparable case, indicating that the 0% probability may be an overcorrection if similar atmospheric conditions persist.

Traders must monitor immediate weather updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration for any sudden shifts in precipitation or cloud cover, as even slight rain could lower the day’s maximum temperature[5]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 8 July 2026, meaning the final reading hinges on the peak temperature recorded by the Incheon Intl Airport Station before this deadline, sourced from Wunderground[2]. Recent forecasts suggest daily highs in Seoul could range between 80°F and 94°F (27°C–34°C), but the historic 37.8°C spike indicates that extreme outliers are possible if the heat dome remains stable[2]. Watch for announcements regarding the Sinchon Water Gun Festival, which begins in late July and could influence local humidity patterns, though its timing is unlikely to affect the 8 July reading[3]. The key dependency is whether the current dry, high-pressure system continues or if monsoon rains interrupt the heatwave before the settlement cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.