Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

Seoul will face its typical early-summer heatwave on 25 June 2026, with the Incheon International Airport Station expected to record a peak temperature in the mid-to-upper 20s °C, far below the extreme thresholds that would trigger a “YES” outcome in this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects the market’s rational assessment that temperatures exceeding 35°C are highly improbable for this date and location, given historical norms and ensemble guidance.

Historical data frames this probability clearly: June daily highs in Seoul typically rise from 77°F to 81°F (25–27°C), rarely falling below 68°F (20°C) or exceeding 87°F (31°C), with only isolated record-breaking events like the 37.8°C peak recorded in early July 2025 [2][8]. Even South Korea’s all-time national heat record of 41.0°C occurred in Hongcheon, not Seoul, and during August 2025, not June [3][4]. These comparable cases confirm that a 0% YES probability is well-founded, as no recent June data supports temperatures approaching the resolution threshold.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Incheon station on 25 June, particularly any sudden shifts in solar radiation or wind patterns that could elevate temperatures unexpectedly. While no immediate weather alerts have been issued for Seoul as of 24 June, forecasters note that late-June heatwaves in South Korea can intensify rapidly if high-pressure systems persist [6]. A key catalyst to watch is the Korea Meteorological Administration’s mid-week forecast update, which may signal whether the current mild trend will hold or if a heat spike is imminent [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.