Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s mid-July heatwave typically pushes daytime highs well above 30°C, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport station often recording peaks near 32–35°C. Historical data shows daily highs in July rarely fall below 25°C and frequently exceed 35°C, driven by intense solar radiation and humid conditions [1][5]. The current 0% YES probability for any outcome below 26°C aligns with this pattern, as overnight lows in mid-July usually sit around 26–27°C, making sub-26°C highs statistically implausible [2].

Trader consensus clusters around 31–32°C, with 31°C holding 37% probability and 30°C at 24%, reflecting typical mid-July norms rather than extreme outliers [3]. Recent forecasts for July 11 indicate highs near 84°F (29°C) with possible thunderstorms, which could temporarily suppress peak temperatures if heavy precipitation occurs [6]. However, such cooling events are intermittent; the broader trend shows rising degree days and increasing solar energy through July, supporting sustained high temperatures [1].

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground’s hourly records for ZSPD, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation intensity on July 11. Traders should monitor AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast, which projects highs between 89–100°F (32–38°C), and watch for official meteorological bulletins on thunderstorm activity that could alter the day’s peak [7]. Any deviation from the 31–32°C cluster would likely stem from an unexpected weather system, but current data suggests the market’s probability distribution is well-calibrated to historical norms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.