Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is entering its peak summer heatwave on 13 July 2026, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record highs well above 30°C. Current forecasts indicate daily maximums between 32°C and 35°C for the date, with the average July high sitting at 32°C and frequent peaks reaching 35°C or higher due to intense humidity and solar radiation [3][5]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high-temperature range likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s resolution threshold and the realistic forecast, as temperatures in this period routinely exceed 30°C and often breach 35°C [3][6].

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai sees temperatures consistently hovering above 30°C, with recent years recording peaks up to 38°C during similar heat events [6]. The current probability of 0% suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually low threshold that contradicts both seasonal norms and the 2026 forecast, which shows highs ranging from 86°F to 98°F (approximately 30°C to 36°C) [1][7]. Traders should watch for real-time updates from Wunderground and local meteorological bulletins, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter the day’s maximum [2][4]. Any announcement of a heatwave intensification or precipitation delay would be a key catalyst to reassess the probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.