Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat today, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station expected to record temperatures near 36°C under hot, humid, and partly sunny conditions. Rain is anticipated later in the morning and afternoon, which may temporarily suppress the daily maximum, though the prevailing muggy atmosphere typically sustains high readings throughout the day[2][4].

Historical July data for Shanghai confirms that temperatures routinely exceed 35°C, with the city frequently experiencing heatwaves where highs reach 37°C or more[5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes a specific, likely extreme, temperature threshold will not be breached, despite July being the hottest month in Shanghai where 30°C+ days are standard[5]. Comparable cases from recent years show that even with scattered showers, the combination of high humidity and strong solar radiation often allows temperatures to peak near 36–37°C before evening cooling[2][4].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily maximum, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature at the Pudong station[1]. Key catalysts include the timing and intensity of the afternoon scattered showers, which could lower the peak if they arrive before the daily maximum is reached[2]. Additionally, the UV index is forecast to reach 11, indicating intense solar heating that could push temperatures higher despite cloud cover[1]. Any sudden shifts in wind direction or unexpected heavy rainfall before midday would be critical to watch, as these factors directly influence the final recorded temperature[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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