Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

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Market context

Shanghai is experiencing a mostly cloudy July 21 with local thunderstorms likely, suppressing any chance of extreme heat today. The atmosphere holds a 60% probability of precipitation, placing conditions at the upper end of moderate risk for rain, which naturally limits solar heating and keeps peak temperatures well below the thresholds required for a "YES" outcome in this market [1].

Historical data for mid-July in Shanghai shows that while the city often reaches 33–35°C during clear, dry spells, the presence of cloud cover and thunderstorms typically caps highs near 28–30°C. The current 0% crowd-implied probability aligns with this pattern, as wet, unstable weather has consistently prevented record-breaking temperatures in comparable years, making a resolution to the highest temperature range statistically improbable under these specific atmospheric conditions.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, as the settlement source relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for all times on this day. Any sudden shift to clear skies before noon could theoretically raise temperatures, but the current forecast of mixture sunshine and clouds with thunderstorm risk suggests no significant catalyst will emerge to alter the 0% probability before the 2026-07-21T12:00:00Z settlement window closes [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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